Fixing Trades Pipelines: From Risk Aversion to Train-or-Pay
We don’t have a shortage of people; we have a shortage of trained people. “Worker shortage” often means
“shortage of cheap, already-trained workers.” This paper merges two fixes:
(1) break the risk-aversion loop that killed shop and youth apprenticeships, and
(2) require industry to train again through a simple train-or-pay framework.
A) The Risk-Aversion Loop That Shut Down Shop
1) Overbroad Liability
One accident can trigger outsized lawsuits—even when protocols were followed—so schools and firms avoid hands-on learning.
2) Insurance Gatekeeping
Carriers hike premiums or refuse coverage for programs involving machines, heights, or tools unless activity is restricted.
Safe-harbor for training: If state protocols are followed, liability is limited to actual costs (non-gross negligence).
Caps in educational settings: Reasonable limits for routine, supervised training incidents.
Youth work exemptions (16–17): Structured, supervised apprenticeships permitted (analogous to licensed student driving).
OSHA “training mode”: A standard tailored for learning environments—safe, but not prohibitive.
B) It’s Not a Worker Shortage—It’s a Training Shortage
What employers really want:
Fully productive workers on day one (no training cost, no ramp time).
Low risk of churn after training.
Access to cheaper parallel labor markets (undocumented hiring, labor brokers, or permissive visa channels).
Result: the “shortage” is a finance problem (training cost on this quarter’s P&L), not a people problem.
C) Make Training the Default: Train-or-Pay
1) Apprenticeship Ratio or Contribution
Train: Maintain a rolling apprentice ratio (e.g., 1 apprentice per 5 journeymen) in covered trades; or
Pay: Contribute a per-hour surcharge to a state workforce trust that funds public apprenticeship slots.
2) Joint Liability & E-Verify
Joint liability up the chain for wage theft and unlawful hiring (prime contractor is on the hook).
Universal E-Verify tied to eligibility for public contracts and tax credits.
3) Stop Credential & Language Inflation
Skills-first postings: Public procurement and licensing prioritize practical exams over paper credentials.
Job-specific language rules: A second language only when duties truly require it; postings must show the business case.
4) Retention Without Handcuffs
Training agreements: Modest, time-limited payback (pro-rated) if a trainee departs within, say, 12 months.
Anti-poaching safe harbor: Competitors can hire trained workers if they reimburse an agreed slice of remaining training cost to the program—not to the prior employer.
5) Tie Public Money to Training
Tax credits only for employers meeting apprentice ratios or paying into the trust.
Bid preferences for firms with verified training outcomes, safety records, and lawful hiring.
